FirstBank of Nigeria Limited has said Nigeria’s economy has entered a new phase where the priority is no longer restoring macroeconomic stability but translating recent gains into stronger private investment, higher productivity and broader improvements in living standards.

The bank made the assertion in its “Reading the Signals | The Next Half” Mid-Year Economic & Market Outlook 2026, published in July 2026.

According to FirstBank’s Economic Research team, two years of policy adjustments have helped stabilise key macroeconomic indicators, supported by improved foreign exchange market conditions, stronger external reserves and rising investor confidence.

What the report is saying

The report noted that Nigeria’s external reserves climbed to $51.46 billion as of June 30, 2026, while liquidity in the official foreign exchange market improved significantly, helping to strengthen market confidence.

FirstBank said the country’s economic conversation is increasingly shifting from stabilisation to growth and productivity.

  • “Following two years of significant policy adjustment, the macroeconomic environment has become more stable. However, the central question is no longer the restoration of macroeconomic stability, but the extent to which that stability begins to strengthen productive economic activity, stimulate private investment and deliver broader improvements across the real economy.”

The bank noted that the first half of 2026 provided further evidence that economic reforms are increasingly being reflected in market outcomes, with stronger external buffers, improving FX market conditions and recovering investor confidence.

However, it cautioned that inflation remains elevated, financing conditions are still restrictive and the benefits of improved macroeconomic stability have yet to fully filter through to businesses and households.

  • “Increasingly, attention is shifting towards translating that stability into stronger investment, higher productivity, improved competitiveness and broader improvements in living standards.
  • “The second half of the year is therefore likely to be defined less by the direction of policy and more by the effectiveness with which recent macroeconomic gains are converted into stronger and more inclusive economic outcomes.”

Refining gains reshape trade profile

The report also pointed to significant progress in the oil and gas sector, particularly in refining activities.

According to FirstBank, refined petroleum exports rose by 20.3% quarter-on-quarter to $2.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026, while imports of refined petroleum products plunged by 87.5% to $310 million from $2.48 billion in the previous quarter.

The development contributed to a sharp increase in Nigeria’s goods account surplus, which widened to $5.95 billion.

The bank said the shift demonstrates how domestic refining capacity is beginning to alter Nigeria’s trade structure and reduce one of the country’s longstanding sources of foreign exchange demand.

It noted that the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery played a key role in supporting exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel across Africa and into Europe during the first half of the year, particularly amid supply disruptions linked to tensions involving Iran.

Outlook for H2 2026

Looking ahead, FirstBank said sustaining foreign exchange inflows, improving export performance and attracting long-term capital will be critical to maintaining economic momentum.

The bank argued that the success of economic reforms will increasingly be measured by their ability to drive private-sector investment, improve productivity, expand domestic value addition and enhance household welfare.

“Macroeconomic stabilisation is the foundation, but our collective focus must now shift to strengthening productive activity, accelerating private investment and delivering broad-based improvements that create lasting prosperity for Nigerians.”

What you should know

The report comes amid signs of improving investor sentiment, with capital importation rising to $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026, an increase of 83.8% year-on-year, according to earlier Nairametrics analysis.

While macroeconomic indicators have strengthened, FirstBank’s outlook suggests the next phase of Nigeria’s economic reform journey will depend on how effectively those gains are translated into investment, jobs and higher living standards.