Political parties are hubs of hope and bold claims. Over the years, we have read claims by many political parties that their chances of emerging victorious are unmatched. They claim that the people have promised to deliver them at the polls and that nothing would stop them.

But even as this has become expected, the claim I just read from one Engr. Abakar Atiku Musa, who said he’s the deputy publicity secretary of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Kebbi state, must rank among the most hilarious examples of bold, empty claims.

I have dismissed Abakar’s claims as bold and empty because, for those of us in Kebbi, none of what he presents as evidence that his party would emerge victorious is even close to being true. It’s as if the man is talking about two different Kebbi states: the real one we live in, where no one is paying any serious attention to the ADC, and the imaginary one created in his head, where the ADC is the party to beat.

But like I said earlier, wishful thinking is a time-tested ingredient of politics, and one must allow spokespersons, whose real job is propaganda, to earn their pay.
But not everything in Abakar’s release is entirely unfounded. For instance, his claim that it amounts to a fundamental misreading of the political mood in Kebbi state and across Nigeria, while responding to a Daily Trust publication which claimed that the outcome of the 2027 governorship election would be determined principally by the financial capacity of political parties, is somewhat valid.

I also agree that it would be “belittling to the people of Kebbi state for anyone to assume or insinuate that their votes can be secured or lost as a result of financial inducement. Such an assumption diminishes the political consciousness, democratic maturity, and independent judgment of the electorate. The people of Kebbi have consistently demonstrated that they are capable of making electoral choices based on conviction, performance, and the overriding public interest rather than on monetary considerations.”

Abakar spoke of how history is replete with evidence that citizens who have become sufficiently dissatisfied with governance refuse to be suppressed by money, no matter the amount, state resources, or political patronage offered in exchange for subverting their will. He went further to correctly reveal that the voting population of Kebbi state has always been clear proof of this reality.

But what he didn’t say, perhaps because that would shoot down his own argument, is that the alternative must always be so appealing that no amount of incumbency or the governance scorecard of the incumbent can withstand it.

As he correctly suggested, the 2027 election in Kebbi state will not be a contest between wealthy politicians. It will be a referendum on governance. And on that score, the opposition ADC candidate has no leg to stand on. Where his main opponent in the All Progressives Congress (APC), Governor Nasir Idris, has a tangible record of impact, although we acknowledge that more could be done, the greatest legacy of the ADC flag bearer is a trove of forfeited properties reportedly running into over ₦250 billion.

Where Nasir Idris is, for much of what we know, prudent with public funds and has shown that development can reach even parts of the state abandoned by previous governments, the only thing his opponent from the ADC has to show is corruption allegations and abuse of office.

What Abakar presented as his smoking gun is merely a regurgitation of national realities that also affect the people of Kebbi state. These include the rising cost of living, widespread poverty, youth unemployment, insecurity affecting farming communities, the alarming number of out-of-school children, declining educational outcomes, inadequate healthcare, poor infrastructure, and the growing hardship confronting ordinary families.

But, as always, he has chosen not to mention that, although more is still expected, the incumbent governor has done a lot through agricultural interventions that provide free farm inputs, make machinery available to farmers, build roads connecting farming communities to markets, support security efforts through the provision of mobility vehicles, improve allowances to boost morale, and strengthen intelligence gathering through the establishment of a quasi-security outfit to complement national security agencies.

Let me also state that the challenges confronting Kebbi state, which he correctly noted, have been documented by respected national and international institutions, including the National Bureau of Statistics, UNICEF, and other development partners, did not start with Nasir Idris. But, as government is a continuum, the governor has tried his best to address some of them.

For instance, healthcare was in a very poor state when Idris came to power. He was on national television acknowledging that there were hospitals without roofs or beds in his state and that he was determined to improve the situation. Since then, massive infrastructural upgrades and personnel recruitment have placed the state’s healthcare sector on an upward trajectory. The game changers are the College of Nursing and Midwifery, Ambursa, and the domestication of national remuneration packages for Kebbi healthcare workers.

It is therefore misleading to suggest that the ADC is the face of the referendum in Kebbi when the situation is markedly different and the people of the state can readily spot the difference between those selling empty rhetoric and the one actually investing in delivering his campaign promises.

I think the most desperate attempt by Abakar is his dismissal as inaccurate of the claim that the ADC is dependent on a single individual whose legacy leaves so much to be desired. He claims the movement for change in Kebbi state is powered by an expanding coalition of experienced leaders, professionals, youths, women, and community leaders—all people without faces or names.

Sincerely, I wish political tools such as Abakar would learn to speak less and strategise more because, frankly, whenever they embark on such long, tiring tirades, they either confirm what people already know or reveal even more damaging information that runs counter to their own aspirations.

I mean, imagine someone who wants to be taken seriously claiming that a coalition led by Malami is something to worry about? All the fancy claims that the ADC remains focused on strengthening its grassroots structures, engaging directly with communities, expanding its membership, and presenting practical solutions to the challenges confronting the people of Kebbi state are hogwash.

It is true that the people of Kebbi state have become increasingly conscious that sustainable development cannot be purchased through vote buying or determined by the size of campaign war chests. It is also true that elections are ultimately won by the confidence of the electorate, and confidence is earned through credible leadership, integrity, and a compelling vision for the future.

As Abakar rightly opined, the decisive factors will be the performance of those in government. Need I remind him that the Maidokis he is presenting as the holy grail of the coalition are also in government? As for the unmet expectations of the people, there must first be a credible template for comparison. The clincher, I believe, is the overwhelming desire for genuine change, with “genuine” being the operative word.

But I like the spirit, and the feigned media confidence, of the ADC. The audacity to believe that they could pull off such a political heist in Kebbi state is worth studying. Nowhere is this more amusing than in the belief that the people would somehow ditch an incumbent who has shown considerable promise for someone who is, for all intents and purposes, politically damaged by the consequences of his own actions and decisions. I wish them luck.

But the only thing I have a problem with is the suggestion that the ADC is somehow still in with a shout in Kebbi because it has within its ranks people who inspire enough confidence to force a change. That is the height of wishful thinking, and I can’t wait to be proven right.

Sagir Musa,
Abuja