• Civil society groups express mixed feelings about election’s conduct, call for neutrality from INEC, security agencies

As residents of Osun State brace up for the August 15 governorship election, violence and controversies have shot to the lead of issues on the lips of stakeholders. This has prompted questions from various observers and political actors as well as millions of people, including voters, who are concerned for their safety. Members of civil society organisations have also raised issues on what awaits voters on election day. PHILIP IBITOYE examines the concerns and poses the question: Will the election be free and fair?

IF do-or-die politics has a capital or poster child in contemporary Nigerian politics, it would be Osun State. In the last few months, the state has been enveloped by large-scale violence and deadly attacks on rival political groups, with accusations and counteraccusations perpetually on the trail of such unwholesome acts. The sounds of violence and political tension have reverberated across Nigeria, leaving many asking whether a political office is worth the blood of dozens of people, or even a single soul. Since October 2025, until at least the end of June 2026, the state has recorded 44 election-related violent incidents and 13 deaths, according to figures from the Kimpact Development Initiative(KDI), a civil society organisation (CSO) monitoring pre-election activities in the state. Not a few have expressed concerns at the propensity for violence in the Osun election. While some analysts believed that politicians could be engineering violence as a measuee of gerrymandering at the polls, the concerns for safety among the ordinary citizens is real.

In June, a 14-year-old boy, Ezekiel Olapade, was shot dead at the Irepodun Local Government Secretariat in Ilobu, allegedly while police watched from nearby. The teenager was allegedly shot while attempting to rescue his mother, who had fallen during the attack by unidentified gunmen. The deceased’s father subsequently accused one Kareem Saheed, popularly known as Tanfeani, of leading the group of six armed men responsible for the attack. Just over a week after the killing, the Osun State Police Command paraded Tanfeani and 23 others arrested for offences ranging from alleged membership of unlawful groups to political thuggery and other violent crimes across the state.

Besides the deadly violence, campaign billboards have been torched across the state, leading to bouts of retaliation that have unsettled the polity. And the state’s political class has spent as much time trading blame for the bloodshed as it has campaigning. It took an emergency visit from the Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Tunji Disu, a 15,000-strong security deployment and a hastily signed peace pact to even get representatives of the two leading parties — Accord party and All Progressives Congress (APC) — in the same room.

But some observers who spoke with Sunday Tribune have expressed doubt that a peace pact has any potential to salvage the damage already caused by the wanton campaign violence and allegations of federal interference, leaving many residents uncertain of what awaits them on election day, now six days away.

Police face bias allegations

This governorship race has been dogged by several challenges, including the persistent allegations of interference by organs of the Federal Government. Accord’s Adeleke has been in a running battle with the Commissioner of Police in the state, Ibrahim Gotan, since the beginning of the year.

In January, when IGP Kayode Egbetokun was still in command of the police, the governor asked the police chief to call Gotan to order over the arrest of one of his aides, Abiodun Adegoke Apesin, who had been repeatedly denied bail over a defamation petition related to the APC governorship candidate.

Six months later, Adeleke was still singing the same tune, accusing the Osun CP of bias against the ruling party in the state, while doing the bidding of the APC, the ruling party at the federal level. Receiving the Deputy Inspector-General of Police in charge of the ICT Department, Force Headquarters, Abuja, Adegoke Fayoade, at the Government House in Osogbo, on June 26, the governor blamed police officers for worsening political violence in the state.

The Accord, the political party of Governor Adeleke has alleged that the police have arrested no fewer than 85 of its members in rexent times, while it also claimed that many of its leaders are being hunted across the state. The arrest of the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Teslim Igbalaye, last week led to accusations of bias by the police, even though he was released the next day.

“You visit us at a time some policemen are openly known to be collaborating with political thugs to unleash violence on our people. Your official entrance comes at a time when we have recorded three unresolved political murders in the last few weeks, namely Eluyera at Ikire, Ezekiel at Ilobu and Aderogba at Esa Oke. There has been no single arrest,” Adeleke told the DIG.

But the Osun CP has denied allegations that he has picked any side in the political dispute in the state, stating that his focus has always been on combating crimes without fear or favour.

The APC has also denied the charges of favouritism from federal elements, alleging that Accord is behind the spate of violent clashes in the state during the governorship campaign. In a recent interview with journalists in Lagos, the party’s standard-bearer claimed that APC members are the real victims of political violence in Osun.

“During the 2022 governorship election, more than 25 members of our party were murdered by members of the political party in power in Osun. In my own local government area for example, the Chairman of Irewole Local Government, Honourable Remi Abass, was killed within the council secretariat, last year,” Oyebamiji stated, further alleging that the state government’s fingerprints are all over the other deadly incidents.

During a July visit to the Osun governor, the IGP also said he had received complaints from different quarters and had been briefed by the commissioner of police on allegations that some suspects were hiding in the government house. “He briefed me that some suspects are hibernating in the government house. I looked at that. If that is true, why should suspects be in the government house?” Disu asked.

Although the IGP has not ceded to the request of redeploying the state’s police chief, Gotan has nonetheless been sidelined ahead of the election, with his boss stressing that the decision was not a disciplinary action against him. Disu has appointed Samuel Erale as the Commissioner of Police in charge of security, which may calm the nerves of actors who have lost confidence in Gotan.

The EFCC debacle

If the police had moved to temper fears of a biased and compromised force, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) appeared not to make pretences with its action, which portrayed it as if it was entering the political arena. Last Wednesday, August 5, the anti-graft agency launched what turned out to be a wrongly scripted play when it announced a freeze on the account of Osun State government. The Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) and a host of organisations immediately kicked against the action, despite the commission calling the move “preventive” after it “noticed huge transfers of funds into different corporate entities.

The EFCC did not reveal the identity of these corporate beneficiaries, which some have argued could be contractors receiving lawful payment for services rendered, but the anti-graft agency said its action was without prejudice to the imminent governorship election in the state.

Predictably, that caveat did nothing to soften the anger of the state government and supporters of the state’s ruling party, who allege that the account freeze followed a pattern of federal agencies frustrating the governance of the state in favour of the APC.

“We are supposed to be in a democracy, where the Rule of Law must always prevail. We will therefore, not accept a situation where federal agencies trample on the constitutional rights of subnational governments. This is a threat to our democracy,” the governor said at a press conference on Wednesday. He also accused the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy and former governor of the state, Gboyega Oyetola, and the APC candidate of using their influence within the ruling party at the federal level to punish the people of Osun.

Apparently recognising the optics of a Federal Government agency freezing the bank account of a government led by an opposition party, President Bola Tinubu directly interfered in EFCC operations by ordering the supposedly independent agency to unfreeze the account. “Osun State is only a few days away from its gubernatorial election. Therefore, nothing ought to be done to give an impression that the EFCC or indeed any other agency of the federal government is being used to interfere with the election,” he said in a statement on Thursday.

Despite this reversal, the initial EFCC action has only raised the spectre of federal agents being used to manipulate the electoral process in favour of one side. This may further threaten the peace of the state, especially against the backdrop of Adeleke recently invoking the deadly and destructive political violence that followed the disputed 1983 election in the old Ondo and Oyo States.

“Remember what happened in 1983. It started in Yorubaland. When they cheated Bola Ige and Ajasin, Osun will not agree. We want a free and fair election,” the governor and Accord candidate said at a rally on Monday.

Can peace pact redeem polls?

All of these events lead to one all-important question: can the peace pact produce a free and fair election that could forestall post-election violence? Parties participating in the August 15 poll signed the pact set up by the National Peace Committee (NPC) on July 30, with the promise of eschewing all forms of political violence.

Although Adeleke was present to sign the pact in person, his primary challenger, the APC’s Oyebamiji, was conspicuously absent, although he sent a representative to sign on his behalf. His absence has led some observers to wonder whether the candidates will take the pact seriously.

Expectedly, the Adeleke campaign organisation knocked the APC candidate’s absence at the peace pact signing, describing it as “a demonstration of disregard for the people of Osun State and the democratic process.” The campaign spokesperson, Pelumi Olajengbesi, said Oyebamiji missed an opportunity to demonstrate his commitment to peaceful elections before members of the NPC and other dignitaries present at the event, including the Ooni of Ife, Oba Enitan Ogunwusi.

He further argued that the absence reinforced concerns about the APC’s commitment to peaceful democratic engagement. “At a time when political actors should be reassuring the public of their dedication to violence-free elections, such a decision sends the wrong message,” the campaign spokesperson affirmed.

The persistent bickering between both sides and dwindling trust continue to cast doubt over whether the peace pact carries any real weight beyond the photo opportunity it produced. Peace accords have become something of a ritual ahead of Nigerian elections, signed with fanfare, often forgotten by the time ballots are cast. Osun’s own history offers little reassurance: the 2022 election, held under a similar pact, was followed by allegations of dozens of killings that both major parties still trade blame over today.

The trouble is a pact only binds the people who sign it, not the ones actually deploying thugs and financing violence in their name. Oyebamiji’s absence from the signing, even with a representative standing in, has done little to settle doubts that the APC’s commitment runs only as deep as the optics demand. With the EFCC episode still fresh and both camps convinced the other enjoys the protection of a compromised institution, the accord looks less like something that can stop the violence than a formality that events on the ground have already overtaken.

CSOs express mixed expectations

Beyond the violence and heated rhetoric coming from political actors, civil society groups monitoring the election are similarly guarded, though careful to stop short of declaring the outcome predetermined.

In an interview with Sunday Tribune, a Senior Media Associate at Enough is Enough (EiE) Nigeria, Akindeji Aromaye, said his organisation “cannot express a high level of confidence” in the process, pointing to a pre-election environment he described as carrying “significant risks to voter confidence and the credibility of the process.”

He cited documented concerns around vote buying and intimidation alongside the violence, and flagged the EFCC’s account freeze as adding “another layer of concern,” an episode he said has the “potential to affect public confidence in the neutrality of state institutions,” regardless of which side is right about its motive.

Still, Aromaye maintained his group’s position was “cautious concern rather than a pre-judgment,” insisting Osun “can still have a free, fair and credible election” if institutions earn that confidence in the days remaining.

The Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, also laid out a series of preconditions for a free and fair election. He said politicians must first “stop arming young people with arms and drugs” to unleash on opponents, and that security agencies and INEC must demonstrate neutrality, warning that if either is “seen to be determined to support and repress” one side, “there’s no way you can have a free and fair election in Osun State.”

Rafsanjani noted that the “desperation to capture or retain power must stop” if voters are to be allowed to choose without intimidation.

On its part, KDI disclosed that its expectations of a free and fair poll in Osun on August 15 are “moderate” rather than high, noting that the outcome depends on “a lot of variables that do not rely on a single entity.” It noted that political parties, INEC, security agencies, voters and the judiciary will determine the fate of the election.

The organisation’s Executive Director, Bukola Idowu, told Sunday Tribune that there was already a red flag ahead of the election, noting that failures of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) recorded during the August 1 mock accreditation could become “a potential for violence” if the machines fail “in opposition strongholds.” He added that the commissioner has a week to put its house in order and ensure a smooth conduct of the election.

INEC, security agencies must be neutral, fair – CSOs

Pressed on what would need to change in the final stretch to ensure a free and fair election that could prevent post-election violence, the CSO leaders converged on the same institutions: INEC and the security agencies.

According to EiE Nigeria’s Aromaye, the burden of proof is on the institutions, not the electorate. He called on INEC  to demostrate “independence, transparency and consistency,” and for security agencies to treat every “credible allegation of violence, intimidation, unlawful detention or electoral malpractice” with impartial investigation, regardless of party.

The organisation also urged restraint, but not abdication, for federal institutions weighing in during the final days, stating that legitimate enforcement should continue, but “in a manner that respects due process” and avoids the “perception that state institutions are being used to influence the electoral process.”

Similarly, Rafsanjani appealed to the federal government to ensure INEC and police “are not seen and determined to favour a particular candidate.” “If they are not determined to do mago mago, there will not even be agitation. Federal agencies are, sometimes, the ones that are creating tension, when they try to be biased,” the CISLAC head told Sunday Tribune.

The KDI echoed the neutrality call, reminding both the police and the army that their name carries the word “Nigerian” — “not any political party” — before turning to INEC’s technical readiness. Idowu urged the commission to deploy its newest BVAS units rather than machines that have serviced the state “since 2019 or prior,” arguing that alone would go some way toward restoring credibility to the process.

Whether these appeals are heeded in the days left may well decide what kind of election Osun gets.

Six days out, the record so far — dozens of documented attacks, over a dozen deaths, a sidelined police commissioner, a frozen state account, and a peace pact only one frontrunner signed in person — leaves little basis for confidence. But as the CSOs monitoring the process maintain, nothing is predetermined. What happens on August 15 will depend less on what has already occurred than on whether INEC, security agencies and the political class make a good account of themselves in the days left.