Osun Election: A Strategic Setback or a Political Defeat?

By Sola Adeola

The dust is gradually settling on the Osun election, but the political arguments surrounding the outcome are far from over. Senator Ademola Adeleke has emerged victorious, and naturally, his supporters are celebrating. For others, however, the result has become an opportunity to declare the collapse of the APC and predict the political future of Nigeria ahead of 2027.

But perhaps we need to pause.

Beyond the celebrations, accusations and political noise, there is a need for sober reflection. Elections are not won or lost in isolation, and a single electoral outcome should not be stretched beyond what the facts can reasonably support.

The Osun result is undoubtedly significant, but the bigger question is what it actually represents. Is it evidence of a weakening APC, a rejection of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, or simply a setback in one state?

This is why the Osun outcome deserves more than celebration or lamentation. It deserves analysis, context and a proper understanding of the difference between a strategic setback and a political defeat.

For those who have repeatedly described President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as desperate for power or determined to control every election, I would ask a simple question. If President Tinubu were truly as desperate as some claim, and if he genuinely possessed the kind of unlimited federal political machinery attributed to him, would Osun State have been won by the opposition?

I doubt it.

The Osun outcome should remind us that Nigerian democracy is considerably more complex than the narratives we sometimes construct on social media. Electoral outcomes are influenced by several factors, including local political structures, candidates, alliances, voter preferences, grassroots mobilisation, party organisation and the performance and popularity of individual candidates.

Not every electoral outcome can be attributed to federal interference. Equally, not every victory should automatically be interpreted as evidence of a hidden political agenda.

The APC may have suffered an electoral setback in Osun. That is undeniable. But describing one state election as evidence of the collapse of the APC, or as a definitive rejection of President Tinubu ahead of 2027, is a much bigger claim.

Politics is about strategy, positioning and timing.

A party can lose an election and still learn valuable lessons from it. It can reassess its strategy, strengthen its structures, identify weaknesses and prepare differently for the next contest.

Political history is filled with examples of parties and politicians who suffered electoral defeats only to return stronger.

A particularly striking example can be found outside Nigeria. Donald Trump lost the 2020 United States presidential election after his first term in office. Yet four years later, he returned to win the 2024 presidential election and became only the second president in American history to serve two nonconsecutive terms.

The point is not that Osun is the same as the United States. It clearly is not. The political systems, electoral structures and circumstances are entirely different.

The lesson is much simpler. Today’s electoral setback does not necessarily determine tomorrow’s political outcome.

Trump’s political comeback demonstrates how dramatically political fortunes can change between elections. A politician or political party that suffers a setback can reassess its strategy, reconnect with voters, strengthen its structures and return with a different political proposition.

That is why those celebrating the Osun result as though it has already determined the fate of the APC in 2027 may be celebrating too early.

Likewise, those within the APC who are tempted to dismiss the result simply because it is uncomfortable may also be missing the lesson.

Every election is a message.

The wise political actor listens to the message, studies the numbers, understands the voters and adjusts accordingly.

Therefore, the question should not simply be who won Osun. We already know the answer.

The more important questions are why did the APC lose, what lessons will it draw from the outcome, what factors produced Adeleke’s victory, how will the various political actors respond and what does the result actually tell us about the political landscape ahead of 2027?

Those are the questions serious political analysts should be asking.

Interestingly, some people are already celebrating the Osun result as though it has settled the political future of Nigeria.
That is premature.

The enthusiasm surrounding the result should nevertheless be tempered with political realism. An opposition victory in one state does not automatically translate into a national political realignment.

Some have presented the result as confirmation that the political structure supporting President Tinubu has collapsed. Others are celebrating as though the 2027 presidential election has already been conducted.

Political enthusiasm is understandable, but political analysis requires restraint.

Osun is important, but Nigeria is a federation of 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, with different political realities, interests, personalities and voting patterns.

What happens in Osun cannot automatically be extrapolated to Lagos, Ondo, Oyo, Kano, Rivers, Kaduna, Anambra, Enugu, Delta or any other state.
Every state has its own political dynamics.

Nigeria has several registered political parties, but participation in an election does not necessarily translate into meaningful electoral influence.

Looking at the Osun contest, the major political battle was essentially between the two dominant political forces. Other parties participated and contributed to the democratic process, but their overall impact on the final outcome was comparatively limited.

This raises an important question. Are some political parties genuinely building structures capable of competing nationally, or are they primarily occupying political space and generating noise without developing the grassroots machinery required to win elections?

Politics is not won by social media popularity alone.

It is won through organisation.

It is won through mobilisation.

It is won through candidates who can connect with voters.

It is won through political structures that operate beyond the internet.

And perhaps most importantly, it is won by understanding the aspirations and frustrations of ordinary voters.

President Tinubu can and should be criticised where criticism is justified.

No elected leader is above scrutiny.

The same principle applies to every political leader, including President Tinubu, Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar and other prominent figures. No political leader should be beyond criticism, and no political supporter should be expected to surrender critical thinking because of political loyalty.

Democracy requires room for disagreement.

If President Tinubu has failed in an area, Nigerians should say so. If his administration has achieved something worthy of recognition, that should also be acknowledged.

Likewise, if Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar or any other political leader makes a political miscalculation, supporters should be mature enough to examine it objectively.
Political loyalty should not become intellectual captivity.

We cannot build a healthy democracy by creating political personalities who are beyond criticism.

Those who have followed President Tinubu’s political journey know that he is not a newcomer to political battles.

From his years as a political strategist and governor to his role in the evolution of political alliances and the emergence of the APC, Tinubu has demonstrated an ability to understand political structures, build alliances and survive difficult political moments.

That does not make him infallible.

It simply means that it would be a mistake to underestimate his political instincts.

His administration should be judged on its record, its achievements, its failures, its policies, its consequences for Nigerians and the realities within which it is operating.

The same standard should apply to his opponents.

Facts should matter more than political hatred.

Being objective also means acknowledging the winner.

Senator Ademola Adeleke and his political team succeeded in Osun. That victory deserves recognition. Political analysis should not become so partisan that we are unable to acknowledge when an opponent has run a successful campaign.

There are lessons in Adeleke’s victory that other political parties may need to study.

How did his campaign connect with voters?

What local structures worked in his favour?

What alliances were important?

What mistakes did his opponents make?

What did voters respond to?

These questions are more useful than simply declaring that one side has finished and another has taken over Nigeria.

Perhaps this is ultimately the question. Is the Osun election a strategic setback or a political defeat?

The Osun election can certainly be described as a setback for the APC. But whether it becomes a significant political defeat remains to be seen.

That distinction matters.

A setback can be temporary.

A defeat can be decisive.

The difference is determined by what happens next.

Will the APC ignore the warning signs, or will it reorganise?

Will it study the grievances of voters?

Will it strengthen its grassroots structures?

Will it improve candidate selection?

Will it address internal divisions?

Will opposition parties successfully convert their electoral victories into a broader national political movement?

And will today’s opposition remain united when the larger political contest arrives?

These are the issues that will determine the significance of Osun far more than the celebrations currently taking place on social media.
Politics is not a straight line.

Alliances change. Politicians cross political boundaries. Parties merge, split and realign. Voters change their preferences. Candidates emerge. New issues dominate the national conversation.

What appears to be a decisive victory today can look very different two years later.

The 2027 election will be determined by the political realities that exist in 2027, not by the emotions generated by an election in Osun.

For now, Nigerians should watch the movements carefully.

Who is building alliances?

Who is strengthening grassroots structures?

Who is reaching across political divides?

Who is learning from electoral mistakes?

Who is merely making noise?

And who is quietly preparing for the bigger battle?

This is perhaps the most important point. Osun is one state. Its electoral outcome matters, but it cannot by itself determine the political future of Nigeria.

A political party that loses one state must examine why it lost. A party that wins must understand why it won. But neither side should confuse a state election with a national mandate.

The real political test will involve a much broader electorate, different regional interests, changing alliances and a national conversation that is still evolving.

The Osun result should therefore be viewed as one important piece of a much larger political puzzle.

The 2027 election is still ahead. Alliances will change, political calculations will shift, new issues will emerge and today’s political opponents may become tomorrow’s allies.

Therefore, let us celebrate Adeleke’s victory without prematurely declaring the death of the APC. Let us acknowledge the APC’s setback without declaring its political defeat. And let us analyse President Tinubu’s administration based on facts, performance and evidence rather than political sentiment.

Those who have spent months predicting the political demise of President Tinubu and the APC may need to pause and allow the political process to unfold. Likewise, APC supporters should not dismiss the Osun result simply because it is uncomfortable.

Every election carries a lesson, and wise politicians learn from both victory and defeat.

The Osun election has produced a winner. It has also produced lessons. But the larger political battle is far from over.

In politics, the loudest voice does not necessarily win. The deepest thinker does not necessarily predict the future. Ultimately, the voters have the final say, and the final verdict belongs to the ballot box.

Osun has been won. The political war, however, is far from over.

By Sola Adeola
Governance Analyst
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