2027: Atiku, Obi Can Defeat Tinubu Separately, But Merger Faces Major Hurdles — Ardo

Political strategist and Convener of the League of Northern Democrats, Umar Ardo, has identified what he described as two major obstacles standing in the way of a possible alliance between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Speaking on Arise News, Ardo said both opposition figures have the capacity to challenge President Bola Tinubu, even if they eventually decide against forming a single political platform.

According to him, Atiku’s major challenge is not his ability to retain his supporters if he steps down, but his apparent unwillingness to withdraw from the presidential race.

Ardo said the former vice president, who is the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), is unlikely to voluntarily abandon his ambition despite the ongoing discussions around opposition cooperation.

He, however, argued that Obi faces a different challenge.

While the former Anambra State governor has the willingness to step aside for a broader opposition arrangement, Ardo said his supporters may not follow him if he decides to withdraw from the contest.

“My view is that Atiku does not have the propensity by himself to say, ‘I will step down.’ If he says so, he will not have a problem with his support base. But the issue is that he is highly unlikely to say that,” Ardo said.

“Then Peter Obi has the propensity to say, ‘I will step down.’ But if he says so, he will not have his support base. He will not be able to carry his support base.”

Ardo maintained that resolving the conflicting dynamics surrounding the two politicians would be crucial if the opposition is to achieve a strong merger capable of presenting a united challenge to the incumbent.

Despite the difficulty of forging a single opposition ticket, he said Atiku and Obi should not be underestimated as individual contenders.

According to him, either politician could still upset the political order and defeat the incumbent if they develop the right strategy and effectively mobilise their respective support bases.