Hakeem Gbadamosi, in Akure, examines the lessons Ondo State politicians can learn from the recently concluded Osun governorship election, won by Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord political party. He asks whether the seemingly endless disputes among stakeholders in Ondo would save them from self-destruction ahead of the 2027 polls.

THE outcome of the Osun State governorship election may have been decided several kilometres away from Ondo State, but its political reverberations are already generating fresh calculations within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the Sunshine State.

The outcome of the Osun State governorship election may have been decided several kilometres away from Ondo State, but its political reverberations are already triggering fresh calculations within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the Sunshine State.

For Ondo APC, the defeat of its Osun counterpart is more than another governorship loss. It has become a warning signal coming at a time the party is grappling with disagreements over its National Assembly primaries, candidate substitutions, litigation, defections and allegations of anti-party activities.

Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord defeated the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, with 511,067 votes against 444,815, a margin of 66,252 votes. The result has consequently provided political actors in Ondo with another reason to examine whether APC can prevent its internal disagreements from becoming an electoral liability ahead of 2027.

The significance of the Osun result goes beyond the figures. The APC went into the election with the advantage of federal power and an established political structure, yet it failed to dislodge an incumbent who contested on the platform of the Accord.

For Ondo APC, the lesson is clear: party structure and incumbency may provide an advantage, but neither is a guarantee of electoral victory when internal interests are not properly managed.

This is particularly relevant in Ondo, where the ruling party is already dealing with disagreements that emerged from its National Assembly primaries.

What was expected to be a process for producing candidates capable of consolidating APC’s position instead became another test of the party’s internal cohesion. Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa’s camp had backed several aspirants, while subsequent decisions by the APC National Working Committee (NWC) produced a list that did not fully reflect the governor’s preferences.

The development triggered protests, accusations and legal challenges by some aggrieved aspirants, and the party has since moved to establish a reconciliation process, with the aim of bringing the aggrieved members together ahead of the 2027 elections.

But the controversy has already exposed the competing interests within the party. While one camp believes the state leadership should have greater influence over the choice of candidates, another insists that the national leadership has the constitutional authority to make final decisions on party nominations.

The danger is that if the disagreements persist, they could affect the mobilisation of party members at the grassroots. It is against this background that allegations of anti-party activities have gained prominence.

Following the Osun election, reports and political discussions suggested that some supporters of Aiyedatiwa were unhappy with the APC candidate’s emergence and, in some quarters, allegedly celebrated the party’s defeat.

Such claims have raised questions about whether dissatisfied actors within Ondo APC could eventually work against the party’s candidates in 2027. But these remain allegations and should not be presented as facts.

The governor’s camp has denied anti-party moves, insisting that Aiyedatiwa remains committed to APC and its candidates and is interested in securing victory for the party in 2027. The denial is significant because the anti-party allegation has increasingly become part of the wider struggle for influence and control within Ondo APC.

The depth of the concern within the party was further exposed by the intervention of former Commissioner for Energy and Mineral Resources, Razaq Obe, an aggrieved aspirant in the APC’s National Assembly primaries.

Speaking on national television, Obe warned that the unresolved grievances arising from the party’s primaries could cost APC and President Bola Tinubu victory in Ondo in 2027.

His argument was that the political situation should not be dismissed as a routine post-primary disagreement, particularly because Tinubu secured about 67 percent of the state’s votes in the 2023 presidential election.

Obe’s position immediately generated a backlash from the party, as former governorship candidate and APC chieftain, Chief Olusola Oke, took a completely different position.

Reacting to Obe, Oke dismissed the prediction that Tinubu could lose Ondo, describing it as contrary to the popularity of both the president and APC in the state. Oke acknowledged that disagreements after primaries were normal but argued that such disputes did not represent the strength of the party or its preparedness for the general election. He, however, predicted a landslide victory for Tinubu in Ondo in 2027.

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The disagreement between Obe and Oke is significant because it captures the two competing narratives within APC;  one sees the unresolved grievances as a serious threat to the party’s electoral fortunes, while the other believes the party’s structure and Tinubu’s popularity remain strong enough to overcome the crisis.

Interestingly, the APC state leadership has also distanced itself from Obe’s prediction, saying he spoke in his personal capacity and not for the party. The party has subsequently constituted a reconciliation committee to address the grievances arising from the primaries.

Another variable in the equation is the influence of Interior Minister, Dr Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, popularly known as BTO. Although Tunji-Ojo operates at the federal level, his political base and growing influence make him an important factor in Ondo’s 2027 calculations.

His relationship with the governor and the extent of his influence within APC have increasingly attracted political attention, particularly against the background of the party’s candidate-selection crisis.

For some party actors, the question is whether the interests of the Aiyedatiwa and Tunji-Ojo camps can be sufficiently harmonised as the election approaches. Any escalation of rivalry could create another fault line within the ruling party.

Conversely, a working relationship between the two political blocs could strengthen APC’s grassroots mobilisation and reduce the possibility of internal divisions being exploited by opposition parties.

Another twist is the speculation surrounding Aiyedatiwa’s relationship with politicians associated with the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Not long ago, photographs showing the governor with Senator Ayo Akinyelure, an ADC figure, after a church service at the Government House Chapel fuelled speculation of a possible political understanding.

The development generated interest because it came amid the unresolved tensions within APC and the growing prominence of ADC as an opposition platform, but the governor has rejected the interpretation.

Aiyedatiwa’s camp described the claim that he was fraternising with ADC ahead of 2027 as false, misleading and politically motivated, insisting that the governor remains committed to APC. However, in a period of intense political realignment, such encounters are unlikely to escape scrutiny.

The issue is not necessarily whether the governor is planning to leave APC, but whether continued speculation about his relationship with opposition figures could deepen suspicion among party members already divided over the primaries.

One factor that cannot be ruled out in the unfolding scenario within Ondo APC is the possibility of aggrieved aspirants moving to opposition parties, a development that has remained a major concern among loyal members of the party in the state.

For the PDP, ADC and other emerging platforms, recruiting dissatisfied APC politicians could provide an easier route into constituencies where they have traditionally struggled, particularly if such politicians move with their supporters and grassroots structures.

A former APC aspirant does not necessarily have to win an election to hurt the party; taking away a few thousand votes in a closely contested constituency could be enough to change the outcome. The opposition, therefore, will be watching the party’s internal developments closely.

Beyond the legislative contests is the larger Tinubu 2027 equation. APC will seek to retain Ondo for President Bola Tinubu while also securing its National Assembly and State Assembly seats.

But internal divisions could produce split-ticket voting, with some politicians supporting Tinubu while opposing particular APC candidates or backing Aiyedatiwa while rejecting candidates they regard as imposed by the national leadership.

The danger is a situation where Tinubu enjoys strong support while some APC candidates struggle, reinforcing the Osun lesson that party affiliation does not always guarantee electoral loyalty. Aiyedatiwa’s target of one million votes for Tinubu in Ondo underscores the scale of the mobilisation expected.

Yet, despite these challenges, APC remains the dominant political force in the state. It controls the government, retains a substantial grassroots structure across the 18 local government areas and benefits from Tinubu’s support base. These remain significant advantages, but they are not guarantees of victory.

For Ondo APC, therefore, the 2027 contest could be as much a battle within as it is against PDP, ADC and other opposition parties. Rival camps, aggrieved aspirants and competing state and national interests could provide the opposition with opportunities to penetrate APC’s traditional strongholds.

The reconciliation committee offers the party an opportunity to mend its divisions, but its success will depend on whether genuine grievances are addressed and defeated aspirants persuaded to remain within the fold.

However, unless Ondo APC resolves its disputes over candidates, influence and political succession, its internal grievances could become electoral weapons in the hands of the opposition. The greatest threat to Ondo APC in 2027 may, therefore, not come from the parties standing against it, but from the cracks within its own ranks. The Osun election may have been fought in Osun State, but its loudest political warning could be heard in Ondo.