By Gabriel Ewepu, ABUJA
Civil society organisations, lawyers and opposition politicians have dismissed the declaration by the Director-General of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Presidential Campaign Council, Senator Abdul’Aziz Yari, that the ruling party will remain in power beyond 2031, saying political power belongs to the electorate and not any political party.
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The groups warned that while the APC was entitled to aspire to retain power, predicting electoral victories years ahead could create a dangerous impression of political entitlement, undermine confidence in elections and discourage citizens from participating in the democratic process.
They spoke against the backdrop of Yari’s recent declaration that the APC would continue governing Nigeria beyond 2031.
Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre, CISLAC, Auwal Rafsanjani, described Yari’s position as “an expression of partisan optimism”, insisting that it must not be presented as though future electoral outcomes had already been determined.
Rafsanjani said: “The Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre, CISLAC, considers the declaration by the Director-General of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, Senator Abdul’Aziz Yari, that the APC will continue to govern Nigeria beyond 2031 as an expression of partisan optimism, but one that must not be presented as if Nigeria’s future electoral outcomes have already been decided and determined.
“In a democracy, however, no political party has a permanent entitlement to power. The authority to determine who governs Nigeria in 2027, 2031 or any subsequent election belongs exclusively to Nigerian voters through credible, competitive, free and fair elections.”
The CISLAC boss warned that such utterances could undermine Nigerians’ confidence in the electoral process, describing it as careless to make statements suggesting predetermined electoral victories ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Osun poll, a reality check
Rafsanjani urged the APC and other political parties not to overlook the lessons of the recent Osun State governorship election, saying the outcome demonstrated that Nigerian voters could not be taken for granted.
“The recent Osun State governorship election provides an important reality check for every political party, including the APC,” he said.
According to him, “This election demonstrates clearly that Nigerian voters cannot simply be taken for granted.
“Even a governing party with substantial political structures, influential personalities and access to significant campaign machinery can be defeated where voters decide otherwise.
“Therefore, the Osun election does not support the assumption that any political party can confidently predict that it will remain in power until or beyond 2031.
“Rather, it demonstrates that electoral power ultimately rests with citizens when their votes are allowed to count.”
He said political parties should focus less on declarations of prolonged rule and more on addressing the problems confronting Nigerians.
“Instead of political leaders making declarations about ruling Nigeria for another several years, CISLAC believes attention should be directed towards the urgent concerns confronting ordinary Nigerians.
“Nigerians will judge political parties and candidates based on their ability to address insecurity, unemployment, poverty, inflation and the cost of living, corruption, deteriorating public services and citizens’ confidence in governance institutions.”
Rafsanjani added that the governing party should allow its performance to determine whether Nigerians would renew its mandate.
“Political dominance should not be achieved through incumbency advantage, manipulation of electoral institutions, intimidation of opposition parties, vote-buying, abuse of state resources or weakening of democratic institutions. It should come only through the freely expressed mandate of citizens.
“CISLAC urges not only the APC but every political party participating in the 2027 elections to understand that Nigeria belongs to its citizens, not to any particular party.”
He advised political parties to base their campaigns on programmes, ideas and records rather than predictions of victory.
“Campaigns should therefore focus on ideas, programmes, track records and solutions, rather than declarations suggesting predetermined electoral victories,” he said.
The CISLAC director also charged the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, security agencies and other state institutions to remain neutral.
“The responsibility of INEC, security agencies and other state institutions is equally important. They must remain politically neutral and ensure that no political party—whether governing or opposition—is given an unfair advantage.”
He stressed that Yari and the APC had the right to seek continued control of government, but could not claim ownership of the future.
“Senator Yari and the APC are entitled to aspire to remain in government beyond 2031, just as opposition parties are entitled to aspire to replace them. But aspiration must never be confused with entitlement.
“Ultimately, 2031 belongs neither to APC nor to any opposition party. It belongs to the Nigerian people. The ballot, not political declarations, must determine who governs Nigeria.”
‘Yari disregards electorate’
Human rights lawyer, Idris Faro, also faulted Yari’s declaration, saying electoral victory was determined by voters and not pronouncements by politicians.
“Electoral victory is ordinarily determined by the programmes and policies implemented by a political party. It is not determined by an unguarded statement of a politician.
“To assert that your party will rule beyond 2031 shows that you have no regard for the role and power of the electorate,” Faro stated.
He said a politician confident in his party’s performance should point to achievements and allow voters to make the final judgment.
“A careful politician would state that with the number of transport infrastructure done, economic reforms introduced which have stabilised the economy, and constitutional amendments passed, he believes his party will win future elections.”
Faro added: “Historical evidence runs contrary to that reckless assertion. Your hope ought to be based on the appreciation of your projects and scores given by the voters.”
Nigerians’ll decide — ActionAid
Country Director, ActionAid Nigeria, Dr Andrew Mamedu, said no government or political party could guarantee victory in 2027 or any subsequent election because the ultimate power rested with Nigerians.
“For us in civil society, we insist that there should be free, fair and credible elections so that the votes of the people, the voice of the people is what matters, what counts at the end of the day,” Mamedu said.
“So a particular administration cannot, nobody can say for certain that they will win this election, win the next election.
“From what Senator Yari has said, it means that they will win this coming election and win the next one, but that’s not for him to say, that’s not for him to decide.
“It is left for the people of Nigeria to decide, it’s left for the citizens of Nigeria and that majority of the citizens to decide. So people should come out and cast their vote.”
Mamedu, however, said Yari’s statement could also be interpreted as a challenge to the APC to improve its performance.
“On the other hand, it could mean that APC, of course, would need to sit up from what they are doing right now.
“There are clear indications that people are still feeling the hardship, people are still feeling, are still looking for more good governance from all across, from both federal and states, across board.”
According to him, the ruling party could retain power if it performed better and implemented policies that improved citizens’ welfare.
“So it could mean that APC, Senator Yari, is saying that the APC is going to sit up and do better, that’s another way to interpret it, that if they do better, if they implement pro-poor policies, policies that concern the people, positively affect the people, then of course people will vote them in and vote them back.”
He, however, warned against any interpretation suggesting that the APC intended to retain power through illegitimate means.
“Or it could also mean that they are thinking that they will come in and they would do that by all means possible. Could that also mean that they would want to get into power by all means possible, including doing things that are illegitimate or illegal?
‘Don’t be frightened’
Mamedu said Yari was speaking as a politician and urged Nigerians not to be discouraged from voting by declarations of predetermined victory.
“But what would you expect from a politician? That’s a politician speaking like a politician but definitely for us in civil society, we do not, of course we do not subscribe to that.
“We clearly say that people should come out, elections have not been held, so results have not been declared. So what he has said should not frighten people.”
He said such declarations could create voter apathy if citizens believed that election outcomes had already been decided.
“You hear people saying, ‘oh, what is it, come out for election. It’s like, oh, there’s no need to come out. Why? Because they have already decided to vote’.
“Who has decided to vote? There’s a fear from some people thinking that, ‘oh, the results will be manipulated, so why bother to come out?’ But the more people come out, like has been demonstrated in some elections, I think Osun is a perfect example.
“The more people come out, the more it is difficult for elections to be rigged, elections to be manipulated, and then the will of the people will count.”
Don’t mistake incumbency for permanent power — BOOT Party
National Chairman of the Because Of Our Tomorrow, BOOT Party, Sonny Adenuga, warned the APC against confusing its incumbency advantage with an entitlement to remain in power indefinitely.
Adenuga said political history was replete with examples of parties that once appeared invincible but eventually lost power.
“When a ruling party chieftain speaks with such certainty about remaining in power beyond 2031, it reflects more arrogance than political foresight.
“We have heard such declarations before. Senator Mantu once confidently proclaimed that the PDP would rule Nigeria for 60 years. History, of course, had a different script.”
He advised the APC to learn from history and avoid assuming that its present dominance would automatically translate into future electoral victories.
“The APC should therefore be careful not to confuse the advantages of incumbency with an entitlement to permanent power.
“Its greatest political asset today is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. What happens after Tinubu will be a different political contest, and I believe many within the APC who have the foresight to look beyond today are already preparing for the post-Tinubu era.”
Adenuga stressed that democracy could not guarantee any party perpetual control of government.
“Democracy does not guarantee any political party perpetual ownership of power.
“Ultimately, it is the Nigerian people who decide who governs them, and their choice can never be taken for granted.”
He concluded with a warning that political fortunes could change rapidly.
“I wish the Campaign DG well. Let them ride and enjoy the tide while it lasts. But in politics, tides change, and no party should mistake today’s dominance for tomorrow’s destiny.”
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