The Sea Empowerment & Research Centre has stated that the increase in import tariffs from 10 per cent to 12.5 per cent on goods originating from Nigeria and several other countries by the United States Government may reduce dollar inflows into Nigeria and could intensify pressure on exchange-rate stability.

The group, in a recent policy X-ray obtained by The PUNCH on Monday and signed by its Head of Research, Eugene Nweke, stressed that the decision by the US to increase import tariffs on goods originating from Nigeria and several other countries marks another significant shift in global trade policy.

The group stated that the measure, which the United States said was necessary due to alleged insufficient safeguards against forced labour in supply chains, replaces the earlier temporary tariff arrangement and is now being implemented under a more permanent legal framework.

SEREC maintained that although Nigeria was not singled out, its inclusion in the higher tariff band raises important questions about the country’s export competitiveness, foreign exchange earnings, industrialisation agenda, and long-term trade relations with the US.

According to SEREC, the US remains one of Nigeria’s strategic export destinations, adding that crude petroleum, liquefied natural gas, fertilisers, agricultural commodities, cocoa products, sesame seeds, solid minerals, and a growing portfolio of non-oil manufactured products have historically dominated bilateral trade.

“The additional tariff may therefore produce several ripple effects, including reduced competitiveness, which could lower export volumes to the U.S., resulting in lower foreign exchange inflows. Any sustained decline in export receipts weakens dollar inflows into Nigeria and could intensify pressure on exchange-rate stability. Export-oriented manufacturers may record declining orders, thereby affecting production capacity. Agricultural value chains, logistics providers, freight forwarders, exporters, and port operators may experience slower business activities if export demand contracts. Reduced exports could affect tax receipts, port-related revenues, and foreign exchange generation,” SEREC added.

The body highlighted that recent estimates indicate that Nigerian exports to the U.S. were valued at approximately $5.3bn, while imports from the U.S. stood at about $3.9bn, giving Nigeria a trade surplus of roughly $1.4bn.

It emphasised that under the African Growth and Opportunity Act, many Nigerian products previously enjoyed preferential access to the U.S. market.

SEREC nevertheless warned that the new tariff regime effectively reduces part of that competitive advantage for affected exports, adding that an additional 12.5 per cent import duty increases the landed cost of Nigerian products in the American market.

“U.S. importers may therefore seek cheaper alternatives from countries enjoying lower tariff rates or domestic substitutes. The sectors most exposed include agricultural exports, cocoa and processed cocoa products, sesame seeds, cashew, leather products, manufactured consumer goods, selected mineral exports, and some processed food products,” it added.

SEREC admitted that although crude oil may be less affected because of separate energy trade arrangements and exemptions for certain energy products, diversification efforts targeting non-oil exports may experience noticeable headwinds.

“Nigeria’s economy remains vulnerable because crude oil still accounts for the overwhelming share of export earnings, non-oil exports are still developing, and manufacturers continue to struggle with high energy costs, inflation, logistics bottlenecks, and exchange-rate volatility,” SEREC stressed.

The group maintained that, from the maritime industry standpoint, prolonged export reductions may translate into lower export cargo throughput, fewer containerised export shipments, reduced shipping activities on U.S.-bound trade routes, weaker earnings for freight forwarders, and lower cargo handling volumes at Nigerian seaports.

SEREC reiterated that while the impact may not be immediate, sustained tariff barriers could gradually reduce export traffic if alternative markets are not developed.

The group mentioned that the direct macroeconomic impact may initially be moderate because Nigerian exports to the US remain heavily concentrated in petroleum products, some of which are excluded from the tariff measures.

“Furthermore, Nigeria can diversify exports toward African, European, Asian, and Middle Eastern markets. However, the tariff is a warning that global buyers are placing increasing emphasis on supply-chain transparency and labour standards,” SEREC said.

SEREC urged the Federal Government to adopt a proactive rather than reactive response and initiate immediate diplomatic engagement with the U.S. Trade Representative to clarify the concerns underpinning Nigeria’s inclusion.

“Strengthen labour compliance systems and supply-chain traceability in export industries to demonstrate adherence to international labour standards, accelerate export diversification under the African Continental Free Trade Area, reducing dependence on any single export market. Expand value-added manufacturing so Nigeria exports more processed goods instead of raw commodities. Reduce domestic logistics costs through port reforms, improved transport infrastructure, and customs modernisation to offset part of the tariff burden. Provide targeted incentives and export financing for affected manufacturers and agricultural exporters. Intensify trade promotion in emerging markets across Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America,” SEREC advised.

The group maintained that there is a need for strengthened collaboration among the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, the Nigerian Export Promotion Council, the Nigeria Customs Service, and private-sector exporters to ensure compliance with international labour and ESG standards.

SEREC reiterated that the new U.S. tariff should not merely be viewed as a trade restriction but as a strategic signal that international markets are becoming increasingly driven by compliance, sustainability, transparency, and responsible sourcing.

“For Nigeria, this development reinforces the urgency of accelerating export diversification, improving production standards, strengthening trade diplomacy, and deepening industrial competitiveness. If properly managed, this challenge can become a catalyst for repositioning Nigeria’s export sector toward higher-value production, stronger regulatory compliance, and broader market diversification, thereby reducing long-term vulnerability to unilateral trade measures,” SEREC concluded.

The United States introduced the tariff under a new trade policy aimed at countries it claimed had not done enough to prevent the importation of goods made with forced labour.

The tariff applies to imports from 60 economies, including Nigeria. However, countries such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico and the United Kingdom will face a reduced 10 per cent tariff after introducing, or pledging to introduce, measures banning imports associated with forced labour.