The Presidency on Sunday described as analytically deficient claims by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar that the Federal Government had received an unaccounted oil windfall of N7.98tn, saying no such windfall existed.

While challenging Atiku to show his workings, it dismissed his critique of the economic management of the President Bola Tinubu administration.

“There is no such windfall. Any incremental revenue from higher oil prices is reflected in the monthly FAAC figures,” Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, argued in a statement signed on Sunday, titled ‘Facts, Not Fear: A Point-by-point Response to Atiku Abubakar On Nigeria’s Reform Journey.’

It disclosed that Nigeria’s dollar-denominated GDP had surged approximately 49 per cent from its post-currency-reform trough of $253bn to around $377bn, and that the debt service-to-revenue ratio had fallen from nearly 100 per cent in December 2022 to below 60 per cent.

It said the figures it said demolished Atiku’s characterisation of the administration as fiscally reckless.

“It is curious that in the middle of 2026, the opposition’s principal economic argument remains anchored to developments in the 2024 fiscal year.

“Economies are dynamic. Reforms are processes, not events. Judging a reform programme solely by its earliest and most painful phase is like judging chemotherapy by the nausea it induces while ignoring the remission it seeks to achieve,” the Presidency said.

On the GDP trajectory, the Presidency argued that following the exchange-rate reset, Nigeria’s dollar-denominated GDP fell to about $253bn, reflecting the immediate impact of currency realignment.

It said, “Since then, figures from statistics bodies and multilateral agencies like the IMF indicate that it has recovered significantly to approximately $377bn, representing an increase of roughly 49 per cent from that post-adjustment trough.

“Likewise, Naira GDP has expanded from about N314tn in 2024 to around N530tn, a 69 per cent increase reflecting both higher economic activity and price changes.”

On borrowing, the Presidency said Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio of barely 40 per cent remained modest by peer comparison, lower than South Africa at 85 per cent, Egypt at 80 per cent, Ghana at 60 per cent, Kenya at 75 per cent, the United States at 130 per cent and the United Kingdom at 110 per cent.

The more significant metric, it argued, was the debt service-to-revenue ratio, which had fallen from nearly 100 per cent in December 2022 to below 60 per cent today.

“The more meaningful question is whether borrowing finances investments that expand productive capacity and future revenues, rather than merely postponing difficult choices.

“Nigeria’s debts have been acquired for productive, long-term infrastructural and investment purposes,” the Presidency said, adding that the argument of overborrowing was “alarmist and does not stick.”

On the N7.98tn oil windfall Atiku alleged had gone unaccounted for, the Presidency said the claim reflected a fundamental analytical error, confusing gross oil price and production volume with actual government revenue.

“There is no such windfall. Any incremental revenue from higher oil prices is reflected in the monthly FAAC figures.

“While the average price for the first half of 2026 for Brent is around $90 compared to the $64.85 budget benchmark, the average daily production fell short at about 1.6 million barrels per day compared to the forecast of 1.84 million bpd.

“The production shortfall partly offset the price premium,” it said.

It further argued that “The convenient mistake many analysts make is to multiply the oil price by the daily crude production volume to determine revenue to the government.

“Such analyses ignore the cost of production, the share of crude belonging to oil-producing companies and the impact of crude sale contracts.

“Atiku will do well to show the workings for his N7.98 trillion oil windfall.”

The Presidency also defended the tax reforms, the fuel subsidy removal and the administration’s social and education programmes, noting that over 1.64 million students had benefited from the Nigerian Education Loan Fund with N303bn disbursed across 300 institutions.

It said over 3,000 primary healthcare centres had been revitalised, three cancer centres were operational in Kubwa, Enugu and Katsina, and more than 11,000 UBEC projects had been embarked upon in collaboration with state governments.

On inflation, the Presidency projected a continued downward trend, saying, “In November 2025, inflation rates in Nigeria fell to 14.4 per cent. Because of the disruption caused by the Middle East war, the rate shot up to 15.91 per cent. But it has begun another descent as economic analysts project that inflation will trend towards 12 per cent by the end of the year.”

It also disclosed that the Federal Government had launched the ward-centric NG-CARES, HOPE and SOLID programmes worth more than $3bn to strengthen primary healthcare, basic education and support for vulnerable communities, in addition to cash transfers to 15 million vulnerable households through the Humanitarian Ministry.

“The reforms were never advertised as painless.

“They were presented as necessary structural adjustments intended to correct long-standing distortions, including distortions created in the Obasanjo-Atiku years, 1999 to 2007.

“The government in which Alhaji Atiku was Vice President waded through that toxic phenomenon and never did the needful,” the statement said.