Nine top security hotspots to watch across Nigeria as SBM flags areas at risk of fresh violence

A new security report from the SBM Intelligence has identified several communities and corrridors across Nigeria, where there is an elevated risk of attacks, reprisals, kidnappings, gang violence and politically motivated clashes in the coming weeks.

The reports, West Africa Security and Political Economy, gave a summary of violent incidents across Nigeria from 7th to 13th August 2026, and highlighted specific locations where unresolved grievances, recent attacks, the activities of armed groups and political tensions could trigger further violence.

Based on the reports, here are key areas to watch out in the coming weeks.

Plateau state

Mangu Local Government Area remains a significant flashpoint following renewed clashes between the Mwaghavul community and Fulani residents at Jwak Maitumbi.

SBM analysts said in the report, “Although troops have restored a fragile calm, the likelihood of further reprisals remains moderately high given that the causative factors remain unresolved, and the recent violence has only added fresh grievances on both sides.”

The analysts warned that the next attack could be a reprisal by the Mwaghavul community, noting that similar retaliatory attacks have occurred within two weeks of previous incidents.

Several communities in Riyom, including Gwa-Wereng Rim, Kyeng, Dorong and Jol, are also expected to remain vulnerable to attacks targeting farmers and reprisals by vigilante groups.

SBM analysts said in the report, “Through August and into September 2026, Riyom LGA will likely see continued attacks concentrated along the Jol–Sho road corridor and the farmlands surrounding Gwa-Wereng Rim, Kyeng, Dorong, and Jol via ambushes targeting farmers, reprisal attacks from vigilante groups, and cattle rustling operations.”

The report also identified the Jol–Sho road as a high-risk route and warned that night-time attacks could further restrict commercial and livelihood activities.

Niger State

The major transport corridor linking Kainji, Ibbi, Zurguma and Mokwa in Niger State is another area of concern, particularly for commercial road users.

SBM analysts said in the report, “Over the next week, save for a stable, short term security deployment, the current level of threat to logistics on the road is likely to remain high given that, bandits are said to carry out operations on the road which has seen transport unions suspended services on the road due to the escalating attacks.”

The assessment follows an attack on the route in which a passenger was killed and others abducted.

Borno state

Gwoza faces a potentially deceptive period of calm following military operations against ISWAP around the Yuwe and Sabil Huda enclaves. While the military action may temporarily disrupt the group, SBM warned that the militants could respond with asymmetric attacks.

SBM analysts said in the report, “For the civilians in Gwoza, this will likely translate to a short-term, fragile lull in direct attacks. However, this is less likely a sign of defeat and highly likely a precursor to a brutal reprisal.”

The report also said ISWAP could shift its focus towards soft targets and military outposts as it attempts to demonstrate that it retains operational capacity.

 Adamawa state

The Shilla gang remains a concern for commuters and residents in Yola, particularly in Yola North and Yola Town. Following a reported knife-point robbery of a nine-year-old boy in Jimeta, SBM analysts called for increased vigilance among market goers around Yola North (Jimeta) and Yola Town in the new week.

Kebbi State

Wasagu remains one of the key areas to watch following a bandit attack on farmers that killed one person and abducted four others. The security concern extends beyond individual attacks to the wider agricultural economy, with the report warning that repeated violence could cause farmers to abandon their land.

“The killing and abduction will likely paralyse farming activities in Wasagu for the coming month, as many farmers may abandon the community and their farms and move into more secure, urban areas such as the state capital” the report said.

The Dandi area also remains vulnerable following a foiled Lakurawa attack on Ugwan Hassan and a broader pattern of cross-border militant activity.

“In Dandi Lakurawa will moderately likely attempt another attack, targeting a different vulnerable community like Malan Yaro and Gebe because like other armed groups, it relies on a cycle of intimidation and cannot afford to appear weak”, SBM analysts stated.

The assessment suggests that the successful repulsion of the group may not end the threat but could instead encourage another attempt against a less-protected community.

Sokoto state

Goronyo is another major kidnapping hotspot to watch, following a mass abduction involving armed men moving through communities on motorcycles.

SBM analysts said in the report, “The mass abduction in Goronyo, Sokoto, involving scores of bandits on motorcycles moving from house to house, is a classic example of the large-scale, industrialised abduction that now defines the crisis and this is likely to continue at current pace with a potential to worsen in a few weeks given the lack of accountability that constitutes security operations in the area.”

The report said the wider security situation in the LGA is likely to remain elevated unless a more mobile military unit is deployed.

Anambra state

Anambra’s commercial centres and wealthy agrarian communities face a different form of security threat: targeted kidnappings of wealthy individuals and business figures.

SBM analysts said in the report, “Over the next month, Anambra State, particularly high-density commercial centres and wealthy agrarian enclaves across Aguata, Nnewi, and Awka LGAs, is are moderately likely to experience a heightened risk of targeted surveillance and soft-target abductions directed at prominent business figures.”

The analysts linked the heightened risk to the emergence of high-value kidnapping as a lucrative model for criminal gangs in the South East.

Rivers state

Ignatius Ajuru University of Education and Rumuolumeni, Rivers State

The area around Ignatius Ajuru University of Education in Rumuolumeni, near Port Harcourt, is another hotspot to watch following a deadly confrontation between rival cult groups.

SBM analysts said in the report, “Over the next two weeks, the Ignatius Ajuru University of Education campus and the surrounding Rumuolumeni community are likely to experience targeted reprisal attacks that may cause a short term campus closure.”

The assessment follows a clash during the university’s Students’ Union Government Week celebrations that left two people dead.

Osun state

Political violence remains the dominant security concern in the South West assessment, particularly around Ilesa East and West, where violence was recorded ahead of the August 15 governorship election. The analysts predicted more violent incidents to follow, given the patten of pre-electionn day violence.

Osogbo, the state capital, is also identified as a potential flashpoint because of its political importance and the concentration of political actors and supporters during the election.

The two Ede LGAs are similarly flagged as areas where political tensions could translate into violence around voting and the immediate post-election period. The report says these areas are among those “highly likely to experience localised outbreaks of violent clashes, targeted voter intimidation, and post-election rioting”, according to SBM analysts.

Ife Central completes the cluster of South West hotspots identified by SBM Intelligence in its assessment of political violence. The report places parts of Ife Central alongside Ilesa, Osogbo and Ede North and South as historically volatile flashpoints where political competition could translate into violence, particularly around election-related activities.

For the coming weeks, SBM’s report warnings point to a common pattern: recent attacks are not necessarily isolated incidents but could become triggers for retaliation, copycat attacks or renewed violence in areas where the underlying causes remain unresolved.