With the official 30-man shortlist for the 2026 Ballon d’Or set to be unveiled, the debate over who will lift football’s most prestigious individual award in Paris has reached a fever pitch.

A thrilling 2025–26 campaign, capped by a dramatic summer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America, has set up one of the most unpredictable and tightly contested voting races in recent memory.

The jury of top-100 FIFA-ranked international journalists will weigh extraordinary individual output against silver-laden team achievements. Here is how the top five favourites rank ahead of the shortlist announcement.

5. Lionel Messi

Could he really pull off another one? Lionel Messi’s place among the contenders highlights just how much weight the Ballon d’Or jury places on the World Cup, as his domestic performances in MLS alone wouldn’t put him in this conversation. Yet, at 39, the eight-time winner proved he still possesses rare magic. Messi netted eight goals to drag Argentina back to the World Cup final, where they ultimately fell to Spain. Had Argentina secured back-to-back titles, he likely would have occupied a top-two spot on this list. Even with a runner-up finish, his Player of the Tournament performance—combined with the voters’ historical affection for the Argentine icon—ensures he cannot be counted out.

4. Kylian Mbappe

It remains astonishing that at 27, Kylian Mbappe has yet to claim a Ballon d’Or despite sitting atop world football for nearly a decade. Once again, he enters the shortlist as a top contender, powered heavily by his World Cup Golden Boot display. His 10 goals in North America saw him surpass Miroslav Klose and Lionel Messi to become the World Cup’s all-time top goalscorer. Outside of international play, Mbappe maintained stellar personal form through a turbulent season at Real Madrid, firing home 42 goals in 44 appearances. Though Madrid ended the campaign without major silverware, Mbappe’s elite output keeps him firmly in the race.

3. Lamine Yamal

Lamine Yamal looks destined to collect multiple Ballon d’Or trophies throughout his career, but the 19-year-old has a genuine opportunity to claim his first this year. Yamal made history by becoming the youngest player to feature in and win both a European Championship and a World Cup final. Playing through a lingering hamstring injury, he served as Spain’s central creative force throughout their world championship run. That international glory caps off a phenomenal club campaign with Barcelona, where he racked up 24 goals and 18 assists to claim another La Liga title.

2. Harry Kane

Harry Kane enters the voting process as a leading contender thanks to an unprecedented single-season goal tally. The England captain produced 61 goals in 51 games for Bayern Munich, firing the club to a domestic league and cup double while picking up the European Golden Shoe. Though England did not lift the trophy in North America, Kane still contributed six goals during their run to a historic third-place finish. His sheer goal-scoring dominance at club level makes a compelling case that rivals any international tournament performance.

1. Rodri

The Ballon d’Or jury historically rewards players who dominate the sport’s biggest stage, and Rodri did precisely that. Operating at the heart of Spain’s midfield, he served as the defensive anchor and primary metronome for the World Cup champions. His tactical influence and consistency earned him the World Cup Golden Ball ahead of top scorers like Mbappe and Messi. Having already proven he can capture the award, his dominant summer makes him the prime candidate to secure his second Ballon d’Or this October.

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